Tuesday, 28 February 2023

馬克信箱投稿

 尊敬的马克玛丽,

 

最近有一首非常流行的歌曲叫做“烏梅子醬”,您知道它的英文翻译是什么吗?它的英文缩写是 D.P.S (射手)。我想自己也叫自己“烏梅子醬”。分享一件没开始没结尾什么都不算的白痴单恋,作为马历2023228日的挑战。

 

我是通过登山结识了 C,一位女性朋友带着她的好姐妹出来,当我看到她时就对她一见钟情,但是之后并没有太多的接触,虽然我们会定期参加团体活动。我一直试图与她进行沟通,虽然我认为自己的聊天技巧还不错,但在与她交流时总是败北,各种话题都被她怼回去,让我十分无语。花了近九个月的时间,我才终于找到了一些共同的话题,或者说找到了她喜欢的话题,才开始频繁地聊天。

 

每天下班后,我都会去找她一起吃晚餐、看电影、唱K等各种活动。我们都喜欢各种美食、旅行和潜水等等,而且她和我一样喜欢Hebe。她非常man,独立,在各方面都比我强,无论是时尚、基础常识还是其他方面,都让我感到自己很不够格。然而,这正是我迷上她的原因。我也超级喜我还没认识她之前短发的样子,现在她的头发变得像Hebe一样得长,仍然很吸引人。

 

后来,我们约好一起去潜水,但由于房间有限,我们只能住在同一间房,同一张床上。在出发前已经沟通过这个情况,途中,她一直闷闷不乐,分享了公司的大地震,她的老板被突然通知被解雇了。她也不确定她的工作是否会被保留。因为这个原因,我们的旅程并不愉快,无论我如何开启话题,她都没心情理我。我之前一直抱着各种幻想,以为可以和她更进一步,但与她同房时,感觉她一直在防备我。她隔了几个枕头,穿了厚厚的几件衣服,把自己包裹得紧紧的才睡觉。她的情绪影响了我,我也变得闷闷不乐,无法好好享受整个旅程。在旅行的最后一天,我们已经开启了静音模式,互相不说话。当时我觉得她可能也被我的脾气搞得很不开心。

 

几天后回到城市,我觉得很内疚,就买了花去她家楼下等她,想和她道歉。但等不到她,她告诉我她今天晚上在外面过夜不回家,叫我回家,不要再等了,不然她会生气的。之后我们就没再聊天好久。当时的我不明白发生了什么事情,感觉在出发前我们的感情还很好,还有更进一步的机会。但旅行后,一切都消失了。

 

后来,我听朋友的建议,整年没有去找她。过了一年才重新联络回,但是我们之间始终擦不出火花。每当我想向前迈一步时,她就会往后退几步。那段时间,我感到非常痛苦。理智告诉我应该放弃,但我却不愿意失去那微小的可能性。我不敢做任何过火的事情,连告白都不敢。我太过于在乎得失,遇到C让我感到我的自信心被摧毁。我觉得我之前有过的恋情都是家家酒,不会有女生喜欢我。

 

我和C已经认识八年多了,但一直没有进一步发展。一年前,我终于决定向她坦白我的感受,但她说已经忘记了我们早年的旅行经历,并告诉我不要喜欢她,她之前也常常让别的男生误会。虽然我告诉她我会放弃,但是我能做的就是尽量不要理C,不要把目光放在她身上。

 

我们之后还有去旅行,但是我们没有再单独出游,都会有其他朋友一起加入。我的朋友们都知道我对她有好感,之前当她避免和我相处的意图会让我非常伤心。上个星期我们刚去旅行,期间她依旧像以往一样让我帮她拍照,而其他人一般不会每次都理她,她仍然不愿和我合照(尤其是朋友起哄时)。不过,我已经不介意了,把她当成普通的朋友,没有任何想更进一步的念头。

 

或许她早就认定我只是普通朋友,而在我们第一次一起旅行时,她察觉到了我的企图,于是开始疏远我。尽管我现在想告诉她,我已经放弃了,只想和她做普通朋友,找个伴一起参加活动,但我觉得很难说服她。我甚至不确定我自己想说什么。

 

是否感到我的思绪混乱不堪?这些都是我内心的想法,为了让这封信更容易阅读,我用了ChatGPT作为我的助理编辑。

 

Donate 各种国家的货币,希望你们来马来西亚,马来西亚的粉丝等着你们

 

乌梅子酱上

Monday, 17 June 2019

Challenging Your Perspectives, Your Values and Your “Right” and “Wrong” (from ahyap.com)


Saved from ahyap.com. A blogger that I admired but too bad he stop blogging and the blog is closed.



2009 is a confusing year for me. A lot of weird funny thoughts spark through my brain that might eventually make me crazy because of “Thinking Too Much”. Luckily I just notice that the mental hospital is just 4km away from my house.

The Vegetarian Shop
You know, Buddhism teach us not to kill any living beings, including the chicken you eat. Last time I thought that vegetarian shops are doing a great deed because they ask us to eat vegetables so we don’t need to kill animals.At first glance, it looks like a good deed. But when I look deeper, I notice that YES, they don’t kill animals anymore. BUT, they are now upgrade they “bad deed” by killing human beings! The so-called healthy vegetarian food they cooked are mostly junk food/toxins. They are mostly deep fried and oily. I can’t even see how it can be termed as ‘healthy’. And I think killing human is WORST than killing animals. Making people sicked are a bigger sin than eating meat!

The Monk and the Butcher
A monk and a butcher are roommates (haha). They stay together as best friends. Everyday if the monk wake up earlier than the butcher, he will wake up the butcher so he can go to work. If the butcher wake up earlier than the monk, he will wake up the monk instead. So time flies and one day both of them are dead. The monk is sent to HELL while the butcher is sent to HEAVEN. Why?

Because the monk wake up the butcher to go for KILLING everyday (bad deed) while the butcher wake up the monk to PRAY everyday (good deed)

Emperor Qin Shi Huang
Almost everyone wants to kill Emperor Qin because he is a brutal leader. They call him the ‘bad’ guy. Tony Leung Chiu Wai, who play the top assassin in the movie Hero, break through all the defense barrier of Emperor Qin until the final (like Lee Chong Wei playing badminton entering final with Lin Dan), placing his “parang knife” (it is really a parang if you watch the movie) on the neck of Emperor Qin. He can just chop his head down like a coconut but at that moment, he got some realization. He didn’t kill him and left. He said, “One shouldn’t kill Emperor Qin”. (I hope Lee Chong Wei won’t say “One shouldn’t beat Lin Dan”)

Why? He might be a “bad” guy but he united the whole China under him and ended the war and ends the people suffering of the long war. If Qin is killed, people will need to suffer in war again.

Mongolia” Najib?
No one, for sure know if Najib is really the killer of the Mongolia girl (did you see it yourself?) If indeed it is really him, then you need to respect him that he can be so good on ‘cleaning his mouth’  even sharks like Lim Kit Siang and Anwar Ibrahim can’t do a thing to proof it. I also know how to blind-talk (I always do in my blog), just attacking people with no proof is boring.

Najib is on the right path of liberalizing Malaysia, and if he keeps doing it and at a faster pace, I am sure I have no problem voting him on the next election. I am simply tired of seeing Malaysia monkey show where politicians are crazy for their power. I don’t want Malaysia to end up like our neighbors – Thailand, Philliphine and Indonesia.

Human deserve “Freedom” and “Democrazy”?
We all want freedom. But think about it, if everyone has freedom, then we really don’t have any freedom! If everyone can do what they want to do, how on earth can you feel safe! If you let your kids to decide if they want to go to school, all of them will say NO. And school can close shop without H1N1. If you ask the adult if they want to work, all of them will say NO too. If you ask the people if government should pay every citizen RM5,000 monthly, all of them will say YES. “Freedom” on highway with no speed limit? You dare to use the highway anymore?

And you think democrazy is right for everyone, right for every country? Look at Thailand, look at Philippines. Too much freedom and  too democracy are crazy. Something that work in a country might not work well in another.You can’t give freedom to everyone. No freedom = prison. Too much freedom = crazy. We can only give half freedom.

No Casino, No Alcohol, No Pork?!
This is not a sensitive issue, I am just giving examples. You see, I don’t go to casino, I don’t go to pubs, to discos.  I don’t drink alcohol and I seldom eat pork either. I even seldom eat chicken and beef! So I am 5 times more extreme than Muslim! Is it good to shut down casinos, pubs, disco, ban gambling and alcohol and eating of pork? Of course I fully support it 100% because it won’t affect me at all.

But what is the problem? The problem is that we as human LIKE to put our values onto other people. We like to FORCE our values into other people. Which you might not sense anything “wrong” because you think you are doing the “right” thing. As I have written in a long post why the world can never be perfect, something that is right to you is always wrong to somebody.

If today there is a religion who worship god with alcohol and pork (there are many!) and they are the majority in our country while Muslim is a minority,  think how it feels when they FORCE their values to you, to tell you the correct way to worship god is by using alcohol and pork? To tell you that what you believe in now is “wrong”? What if there is a religion who think COW is sacred and cannot be killed (there are many!) and INFORCE rules in the country where we can’t slaughter cow because it is “wrong”? Then what do you do in Hari Korban?

More interesting is what if the religion who thinks killing anything is “wrong”, forbid you to kill everything in the country? No more turkey on Christmas?

Trying to Change People or Not To?
If we think something is “right”, should we convince people on it and make people think the way we think? If we think something is “wrong”, should we tell other people? This is an important question for everyone to ask themselves. It is also the the biggest challenge to religions. Should I tell everyone that cancer is not a disease? Should I tell everyone that doctors are liars?

When I blog, I am LOUD and BOLD. But if  I see you in person, I rarely rarely rarely rarely will talk about this. I don’t even talk much to my parents about this nowadays. Because this thing will just make you an “unfriendly creature”.

My point of guidance is simple (that I learn from reading newspaper! ahh, sometimes “Newspaper is better than AhYap.com”), you can try to change people, but you need to make sure you don’t piss people off! If you are sensing anger out of the fella, you better stop (including your mum!). Let them stay the way they wants. Don’t make people angry and unhappy.

There is also no need to get angry when something you expected happen. “See, ask you not to drive so fast, now accident already lor”. “See, ask you not to eat KFC so much, now got cancer already lor”… People, no matter they listen or not, no matter the do the “right” or the “wrong” thing will suffer all the consequences as a cause and effect. It is their path whether it is their choice or not. A guy who has lung cancer might already been enjoying smoking for 30 plus years and he may thinks the pleasure for so long  is worth it! Maybe for them to live until 100 years old without cigarettes is more suffering.

The Soldiers and The Villagers
The soldiers are chasing for the runaways villagers. They have killed almost all of them in the village, the ‘lucky’ ones managed to escape and hide in a cave nearby. The soldiers are still searching nearby. One of the baby keeps crying! He is ‘innocent’ but his crying will get everyone killed including his mum and dad! What should his mum and dad do? If you are one of the villager, what do you do? If you are one of the villager and your wife and you mum and your dad and your 12 kids and your 108 year-old grandma and your mother-in-law  is with you, WHAT DO YOU DO? To kill the baby, or not to kill the baby? 1 dies or 30 die? Or we have no right to kill no matter what, even we will be killed?

If You Kill Yourself And You Will Save Another Man’s Life ….
If there is a gun and you point it to your head and pull the trigger and you can save a stranger life, will you do it? What if it is your mum, or your kids? What if it is not 1 stranger but 10 strangers? What if it is 100 strangers? 1,000? 1 million?!

Will You Eat A Cockroach?
People in “fear factor” eat a lot of cockroaches. But will you do that? Some people eat cockroach without you asking because they say it tastes good! What if I pay you RM10 to eat a cockroach? You might not be interested but the beggar might do it, for him eating cockroach is nothing but RM10 is a big thing. What if it is RM100? RM1,000? RM1 million? I WILL EAT ONE and I don’t know about you. Every value has a price!

Gone Baby Gone
A baby has a fucked up mum who is a drug addict. The baby doesn’t have a father (I think the mum don’t even know who is her father). Then someone came to “steal” the baby and give the baby a good and happy life like other kids with a “father” and a “mother” and a “loving house”. If you know about this stealing, what do you do? To inform the police so the baby can get back to her mum? Or to pretend that you see nothing? Morally it is “wrong” to steal. But is it morally “right” to send the baby back to hell?

To Report Police or Not To?
If your house is broken in and you lose your laptop, you LCD TV, your Japan AV DVDsand your RM10,000 Poh Kong jeweleries, should you report to the police (assume you don’t have any insurance and you don’t need to claim one)?

I did report (Disclaimer: I didn’t lose any AV DVDs). What happened next was a bunch of policemen came to your house and me your house like a big crime scene. They then tell you that this is very common and it happens twice everyday in the neighborhood. Then an “investigator” sprayed a lot of black powder onto your cupboard to get finger prints. Then they left, like they are very pro.

Go to police station, take time. Wait for them to come, take time. Wait for them to ‘do’ their ‘pro’ work, take time. Clear up the mess (and the black powder) after they left, take more time… After 7 fucking years, nothing recovered.

My notebook got stolen due to my sohainess on leaving my notebook in my car in KL 100m away from the police station. Since the police station is so near, I went to report. First thing, they scolded us and say we were “bising” (noisy). Then I have to wait a long time before it is my turn (2 officers working, only 1 person reporting). He took my report like I had nothing better to do but was there to waste his time. The wall at his back was “MESRA, CEPAT DAN BETUL”. Puiiii Puii Puiiiii. Mesra my donkey cock.

He then asked me to come back to collect the report next day! Come back? I said I have a seminar tomorrow that I paid thousands for and they say I have to skip the seminar to come back for the report sharply at 9am in the morning. Come back your head lar, come back!

Let say you sell gold and your gold shop is robbed. When they recover the jeweleries, they won’t give it back to you! They will keep it as ‘evidence’ until the court case is over (take years). And then how much gold is really recovered and how much is given back to you is another question.

If you shop is being robbed and you have CCTV installed, prepare to buy a new set because they will take your CCTV away and give you back after the court case (but there are no court case because they don’t  manage to catch the thieves!). So your property become Bukit Aman property.

If you have a car accident and your car is in the police station, haha, you either be smart enough to know how to get your car back quick or you may want to wait for some documentation work that never seems to be able to finish.

Even if they recover my notebook on search, do you think they will try to find me and give it back to me? A lot of pirated DVDs, notebooks, firecrackers and even drugs are items being “resold”. And guess where is the source.

You Don’t Feel Like Going Out With Someone
If you don’t feel like going out with someone, do you say, “Hey I don’t like to go out with you” or do you say, “I got something to do today”. But actually you have nothing to do the whole day!

“Your Baby Is So Cute!”
Do you say “Your baby is so cute!” or do you say “Your baby look like a lizard?” when indeed it look like a lizard?

When You Are Claiming Warranty
“Was it strike by thunder?”
“No ar, I don’t think so. I always unplug the wire one wor. ”

“Did you wet it?”
“No ar, this morning trying to turn it on already like this.”

“Did you drop it on the floor?”
“No ar! I open the box it is already like this.”

Should We Abolish ISA?
Hahahahahha. Hahahahahha. Knife can be used to cut apple and knife can be used to kill people. And if a thieve enter your house and want to rape your wife and your daughter, do you still use your knife just to cut apple? Do you think our country is free of troublemakers and our people are mature enough?

If A Plane Crashed And There Is Only One Survivor…
Is that a ‘good’ news or a ‘bad’ news? It is a ‘good’ news if you compare it with “no survivors”. It is a ‘bad’ news if you compare it with “no planecrash”.

The Death of Michael Jackson
Is it an “accident”? Or is it a “pattern”? Should you be surprised or should you not? 8 drugs, multiple operations, extreme life stress …

What If You Are Not “You”?
You always think you are you. You think the voice in your head is you thinking. WHAT IF, the voice is not you? The voice that you think is you is actually a disease? Like HIV? That come and attack you and take over you? The voice seems to know nothing, it doesn’t control our heart beat, it doesn’t control our digestion, sometimes the voice couldn’t even ask us to wake up in the morning. Is the voice really the owner of the ‘body’? And where do the voice go when we fall asleep? If the voice is you, why can’t you make it stop? And if you make it stop, who make it stop? Another “You”? And I suppose all human is the same  in the deeper level (we eat food, breath oxygen, have DNAs…) but why some voices are “English”, some voices are “French” and some voices are “Japanese”?

The Car Seller and The Coffin Seller
Is it “right” or “wrong” for the car seller to hope that people get richer? Is it right or wrong for the coffin seller to hope more people die everyday? Is it right or wrong for the doctor to hope more people get sicked?

They Ate The Corpses!
True story 37 years ago. Plane crashed in the moutain full of ice in Andes. Half of them died instantly. No food, no rescuers, and si-beh cold (si-beh = very). The only chances of survival is to eat “meat”. What meat? The meat of the guy sitting next to you before the plane crashed! And ‘luckily’ the weather is so cold that it becomes a natural fridge to the “meat” to keep their “freshness”.

If you decide to eat, you will surely start with a stranger. What if there are no more strangers? If you have a dead family member, do you allow others to .. (i can’t even type the word)… it? Is it “right” or “wrong” to eat corpses to survive? If it is wrong then why do we eat chicken corpses, cow corpses and pig corpses? If it is right then why you don’t you let people e.. your wife? (yucks) You have to imagine that you are si-beh cold and si-beh hungry in the middle of the mountain for several days. You may not want to eat, but what if you have kids with you that are si-beh cold and si-beh hungry? How do you decide for them?

They are rescued 72 days later and many live until today. Story here.

Titanic and The Safe Boats
If a safe boat can only takes 30 people and you already have 50 on it and then there are 1,000 people more in the freezing sea trying to climb up to your boat, what do you do? Whacked everyone who try to climb up the boat? What if the one who try to climb up is your husband? Whacked him too? Or whack the one trying to whack him? What if you are in the water? Are you going to try to climb up the boat too (and being whacked) or will you say, “Let me die here so I won’t sink their boat. It is not ‘that’ cold anywhere.”  When you are in deep pain, when you are struggling deeply, can you still think? Or maybe you will try to bribe the boat to let you in?

Sent Him To The Police Station?
If you catch a thieve, will you send him to the police or let him go? The theive recognize your face (and your wife, your daughter and your baby). He knows where you live and tell you that, one day he is going to come back to you. If you are heroism where everything must be ‘white white white’ type of guy, you will send him to the police. But what after that? Will you be wondering is you house still safe? Is he coming back? Why your wife haven’t come back yet …

If You Eat The Pig… If You Slaugther a Cow…
If you are a muslim and there is no food for days but only pork, and you have wife and kids with you, do you eat? Do you let your kids eat? If you are a Hinduism and a cow is the only food you have for the entire village, do you slaughter it? If you are a Buddishm who can’t kill and there is a lion chasing after a group of shool kids, can you kill the lion?

What Happens At The End?
At the end, life is so fucking challenging. We all seems to be so confuse in this world and we have to make all sort of decisions everyday that we don’t know if it is right or wrong. And then some more somehow, someone will come to your blog, read your post and get so pissed off that he wrote this comment to you

your web suck fuck cibai lancau teo your mother. your mother whole family are prostitue gigolo. cibai u what the fuck you do. hamkaling think u so geng a cibai. hamkachan teo your mama really a prostitue many people teo wan. you are not your father children la cibai !!!!!!!!!! fuck you bitch

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. I know I am “wrong” but I still want to give him ..l..

Monday, 6 August 2018

Midlife Crisis

I hit a roadbloack in life,
I don't know where I am going,
Or who I wanna to be.

Like some of you out there,
I am lost.
I am trying to decide what it is that I could do,
because I am trying my best to avoid the 9-5 corporate life.

Well there isn't anything wrong with the corporate life because I have a wonderful job.
but somehow going down the path didn't seem like the right thing for me.
I want to be a free bird,
A free spirit.
I want the freedom to express.

Tuesday, 5 June 2018

AGM Door Gift - Genting Malaysia (GENM)

Genting Malaysia (GENM)

4x One-way bus ticket (from 1 Utama, Putra Gombak or Pudu Sentral to/from Awana Bus Terminal)
+
4x One-way Awana SkyWay Ticket

Express Bus & SkyWay = RM12 (average) x 4 = RM48

2x Meal Voucher at Genting = RM30
1x Beverage voucher at Genting = RM5

Total = RM83
Current Price as of 5-Jun-2018 = RM5.10

Gift Yield (GY) = 16.27%


Monday, 29 January 2018

上帝要你灭亡先让你疯狂

【天欲其亡 必令其狂 英雄之道 先狂后亡 凡人之心 先亡后狂 我自狂之 奈何我亡】- 唐太宗



Bitcoin Future (Trading Volume 已经多过GBTC) 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/25/bitcoin-investment-trusts-stock-split.aspx?source=iedfolrf0000001

GBTC share split 91 for 1 split

之前一股GBTC = 0.1 Bitcoin
现在一股GBTC = 0.01 Bitcoin

要令大家疯狂,首先要提供大家疯狂的本钱。现在有了,大家快来买GBTC!

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

投资下一个十年


一、人工智能+机器人

1. 人工智能壁垒难以建立,将逐步工具化
一方面,人工智能领域汇聚了全世界最顶尖的人才,但人才相互之间没有太大替代性,竞争激烈,反而促使壁垒难以建立。
另一方面,全球最顶尖的IT公司纷纷重金投资人工智能,包括谷歌、Facebook、亚马逊、微软等,但它们的目标是实现人工智能的工具化。
未来人工智能提供的服务将逐步免费,创业者可任意使用。
2. 中国的独特优点是具备强大的制造能力
人工智能未来可以和实体行业需求、行业应用相结合,中国具有一个独特优点——广东、东南沿海等地具备了强大的制造能力。机器人可以大批量制造,降低价位。
3. 未来机器人行业更强调智能水平
机器人行业以前更强调控制和精度,尤其是日本、德国,但未来将更看重智能水平,即它能和用户做什么样的互动,能提供什么样的支持。未来加上人工智能,机器人对你的帮助无处不在。需要澄清一点,机器人未必长得像人,有可能只是一个机器臂,帮你做饭、泡茶等。
4. 人工智能和机器人行业相辅相成
由于机器的可复制性,机器人的行业应用很快会进入探讨热潮,尤其有了人工智能的辅助,机器人会更“聪明”。另一方面,通过机器人,人工智能才能进入到行业和应用里,一旦应用足够成熟,就会建立壁垒。

二、自动驾驶+电动车

1. 自动驾驶+电动车的优势
第一,自动驾驶加油不便,但自动充电十分便捷;
第二,随着车联网发展,车与车之间、车与环境之间的通信增多,将极大改善交通环境。
2. 自动驾驶小镇
美国密歇根州成立未来交通示范小镇,进行物联网布置,允许完全自动驾驶的车辆在里面行驶,而非自动驾驶则不能上路。
希望中国也能尽快建立自动驾驶小镇,可以积累数据和管理经验,有助于出台更好地不是约束它而是支持它的法制法规,这无疑将大大推进自动驾驶发展。
3. 自动驾驶+电动车领域值得关注的公司
(1) NVIDIA: 未来自动驾驶车辆都需安装GPU,即使仅具备二级自动驾驶、辅助驾驶的功能,也需要通过视觉识别对外界环境作判断,此时都需要GPU。而GPU最大的出货企业是NVIDIA。
(2) 禾赛科技: 相对高端的车或需要精准的自动驾驶,都需要装配激光雷达。在这一领域,中国目前有一家科技公司兴起——禾赛科技。
(3) 宁德时代: 专做电动车电池生产,即将上市。

要实现自动驾驶,就会发现最大的阻碍其实是人类,因为人类的行为不受控,所以各大城市未来主要通道会不允许人类驾驶上路。这样的话,未来会很少人拥有汽车,汽车变成了好像火车飞机那样的交通工具,或者好像Bob说的简化成驾驶舱就行了。
http://www.ifanr.com/943968


隨著電動車的崛起,第一個消失的就是製造引擎和變速箱的公司,另外,電動車也不需要換機油,機油廠商也會消失,除外,電動車是吃電的,意味著充電設備是必備,汽車公司要佈滿充電設備才能運作。而且,電動車是新品種,新的電動車品牌對那些老牌汽車公司則是一大威脅,市占率可能重新洗牌。最重要的是,電池,電池取代石油,變成能源,加上電池是消費品,是個很大的商機,那些能提供關鍵電池芯技術的公司會非常重要,而那些擁有電池材料的礦場則會和石油公司一樣,變得很有價值。


除了電動車外,汽車智慧化與電子化影響也是非常巨大,如自動駕駛...等等。隨著AI的大幅進化,未來自動駕駛會慢慢實現,這對那些AI晶片公司個好消息。除外,感測器廠商與光學鏡頭公司也有商機,因為汽車要感知環境,需要藉由感測器與光學鏡頭。比較危險的是售後AM零件公司,維修廠與汽車保險公司。因為未來汽車無所不在的感測器,加上超強的AI大腦,這意味著車禍的機會大幅降低,沒車禍,代表不需要維修,售後零件和維修公司可能萎縮,汽車保險業務也會受影響。


除了電動車,自駕車與汽車電子化外,汽車共享也是大勢,當大家都共享汽車時,汽車數量會降低,大家就沒必要買車,簡單說,整體車市數量可能會減少。簡單整理可能未來衝擊如下:

多出來商機:AI晶片,汽車電子元件,感測器,光學鏡頭,新電動車品牌,電池芯,電動車馬達,減速器,電池材料的礦場,充電設備商,共享汽車軟體公司。

減少的商機:引擎,變速箱,機油廠商,石油公司,售後AM零件,傳統汽車品牌,維修廠,汽車保險公司,整體車數量。

不變的商機:輪胎,車身機構,汽車玻璃....。

http://makssin.blogspot.my/2017/12/9951tw.html


三、精准医疗+大健康


1. 精准医疗+大健康
精准医疗,即在你健康时预判你何时生病。这和中国的大健康理念非常吻合,如果能够在生病前提前预防,将大幅降低健康成本,幸福指数也会增加。
2. 值得关注的公司:23公司

(新聞來源:電獺少女
(1) 基因分析: 美国的23公司,最早实现基因分析,是世界上最大的基因库公司,一次完整的基因测序需要两三万美元,可以预测在一些关键位点你可能会生什么病以及致病的风险,同时也可以帮助分析你的祖先来源。
(2) 药物筛选: 基因分析+大数据,23公司也和很多医药公司进行深入合作,现在的新药不再需要寻找新化学体,而是通过基因分析+大数据的方式来做药物筛选,这是新的大趋势。
3. 生物医药行业的发展特点
(1) 生物医药行业有很多单点突破: 生物医药和其他行业的最大区别是,它不像人工智能似的渗透到各个行业,而是靠一些治疗方法的突破,从一个点开始形成突破和拉动。
(2) 今天的过分乐观是不正确的: 一方面,这些突破往往让人惊叹不已;另一方面,很多治疗方法从理论上来说应该效果很好,但实际效果不佳。人体系统太过复杂,但生物治疗总体上会有越来越多的突破,未来这些突破连在一起,我们对生物医学的认识将进入下一个时代。

四、智能合约+比特币

1. ICO在国内是有问题的
ICO的全称是Initial Coin Offering,即首次货币发行,意思是让更小的公司在成立之初就能通过发行自己的虚拟货币来公开募集资金,是数字货币领域里面的新概念。
ICO是今年的热门话题,它本身没问题,但我曾经批评ICO在国内是有问题的,因为国内有太多人借着ICO做巧立名目的事,会造成很大伤害。
2. 今年继续推荐比特币
政府叫停比特币交易之后,整个交易不跌反升,说明比特币的生命力非常顽强,所以今年继续推荐比特币,未来比特币上升的趋势甚至还会加快。
3. 智能合约
智能合约未来在各个行业领域都会得到很广泛的应用。但这个趋势未必适合小公司。ICO最大的问题是让小公司认为以此就能撬动大公司。但我认为,绝大多数时候,大公司的资源更重要,所以未来是大公司大量使用智能合约和区块链技术,而未必是小的区块链公司崛起。

五、混合现实+雾计算

1. 混合现实
混合现实(Mixed Reality),简称MR,是把真实世界叠加进虚拟世界,目前的发展越来越清晰化。例如iPhone X已经能做到正面的人脸识别,原理是把激光打在脸上,建立一个3D模型,这也是混合现实的核心,就是要能对任何的真实物体进行3D建模,把它挪到虚拟世界里,未来用途非常广阔。
2. 雾计算
本地计算是一切计算能力都在手机上;云计算,是一切计算能力都在云端;雾的意思是指在中间还有一层本地计算能力,是一个结合的东西。
目前所需的计算能力没有一个本地终端可以满足,如果人工智能芯片有所突破,本地计算能力将大幅提升,但未来3-5年,还是以云端作为支持人工智能的主流,所以云计算能力平台的搭建,也是另一个人工智能增长最快的市场,例如谷歌、亚马逊、Facebook都斥巨资建立自己的云端计算中心,即GPU农场。
3. 混合现实+雾计算
未来,计算能力将逐步提高,传输能力也将大幅提升。5G来临后,混合现实会有非常多的使用机会。目前混合现实刚进入爆炸期,基本趋势已经明确,名气很响,应用还在逐步探索。

六、泛在能源+太阳能

1. 混合能源结构
未来一定是混合能源结构。不管页岩气还是石油,早晚会被消耗掉;但是太阳能、风能、甚至利用养殖水藻提炼出来的生物燃料不同,这些能源更加健康环保,有更大的机会得到发展。
2. 泛在能源
在网络侧,这些清洁能源发展后,一定会推动所谓的混合组网,网络、电网要实现更强的智能化,所以这是一个各种能源能够接入、无所不在的命题。
在地面侧,用户端也会有各种网络无所不在的解决方案。例如特斯拉提供的电池墙,能源会被聚集在电池墙里,特斯拉汽车停在家里就可以接受太阳能电池的蓄电,你想用电时,直接从电池墙提取电能,能源就变得无处不在。当然,这也意味着以能源为主的业务模式需要重新考量。
总结:1. 科技正在全面地改变各个实体产业领域,少则一两年,多则三五年,各个产业都会出现根本的变革;2. 新的机会将出现在产业叠加的领域。